This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 23 12:00 PM ET to October 30, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
Leading outcome
86.3%
86%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 86.3%, up 18.6 percentage points from 67.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 68% → 86%
+18.6 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 67.65% to 86.3% (+18.65 percentage points), from 2026-10-30T14:35:23.107Z to 2026-10-30T15:03:35.934Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 67.65% → 86.3%
Probability moved from 67.65% to 86.3% (+18.65 percentage points). Observations were 28 minutes 13 seconds apart: 2026-10-30 14:35:23 UTC to 2026-10-30 15:03:35 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 74.8% to 67.65% (-7.15 percentage points), from 2026-10-30T14:19:34.682Z to 2026-10-30T14:35:23.107Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 23 12:00 PM ET to October 30, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data".
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Source market
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Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.
If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.