This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 23 12:00 PM ET to October 30, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
Current leader
86.3%
86%
1 outcome
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 86.3%, up 18.6 percentage points from 67.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 68% → 86%
+18.6 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability fell to 67.65%, down 7.2 percentage points from 74.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 67.65% to 86.3% (+18.65 percentage points), from 2026-10-30T14:35:23.107Z to 2026-10-30T15:03:35.934Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 67.65% → 86.3%
Probability moved from 67.65% to 86.3% (+18.65 percentage points). Observations were 28 minutes 13 seconds apart: 2026-10-30 14:35:23 UTC to 2026-10-30 15:03:35 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 74.8% to 67.65% (-7.15 percentage points), from 2026-10-30T14:19:34.682Z to 2026-10-30T14:35:23.107Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 23 12:00 PM ET to October 30, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data".
If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Living timeline · 2 significant updates
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026? — probability rises to 86.3%
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Elon Musk # tweets October 23 - October 30, 2026?
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