This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round of 16 match between PRIVATE and Dark Moon in the Exort Fiesta Playoffs, initially scheduled for November 4, 2026 at 7:00 AM ET.
Leading outcome
1.9%
2%
2 outcomes
PRIVATE
Dark Moon
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability fell to 1.9%, down 8.8 percentage points from 10.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
PRIVATE: 11% → 2%
-8.8 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 10.75% to 1.9% (-8.85 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T16:03:21.502Z to 2026-11-04T16:33:26.436Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
PRIVATE: 10.75% → 1.9%
Probability moved from 10.75% to 1.9% (-8.85 percentage points). Observations were 30 minutes 5 seconds apart: 2026-11-04 16:03:21 UTC to 2026-11-04 16:33:26 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 2.3% to 10.75% (+8.45 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T15:33:42.163Z to 2026-11-04T16:03:21.502Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round of 16 match between PRIVATE and Dark Moon in the Exort Fiesta Playoffs, initially scheduled for November 4, 2026 at 7:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "PRIVATE" if PRIVATE win the match against Dark Moon. This market will resolve to "Dark Moon" if Dark Moon win the match against PRIVATE.
If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before November 18, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of November 4, 2026 at 7:00 AM ET).
If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played.
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Source market
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Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.
If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from.
However, if has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching.
Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition.
If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.