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Counter-Strike: PRIVATE vs Dark Moon (BO3) - Exort Fiesta Playoffs

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This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round of 16 match between PRIVATE and Dark Moon in the Exort Fiesta Playoffs, initially scheduled for November 4, 2026 at 7:00 AM ET.

Current leader

1.9%

2%

Largest 24h move-80.1 pp 24h
24h volume
$38.6K
Liquidity
$2.2K
Scheduled close

Top candidates

1 outcome

  • Counter-Strike: PRIVATE vs Dark Moon (BO3) - Exort Fiesta Playoffs

    -80.1 pp 24h2%

Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).

Latest update

PlungeMonitoring only

Counter-Strike: PRIVATE vs Dark Moon (BO3) - Exort Fiesta Playoffs — probability falls to 1.9%

The tracked probability fell to 1.9%, down 8.8 percentage points from 10.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.

PRIVATE: 11% → 2%

-8.8 pp
Sources and full timeline

Story so far

Recently updated

The tracked probability rose to 10.75%, up 8.4 percentage points from 2.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.

A sourced or deterministic market update is available.

Known catalysts

Supported by the sources below

  • No catalyst has been confirmed yet.

Unresolved questions

What the evidence doesn’t settle

  • Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.

People and institutions to watch

Nothing specific is being tracked yet.

Source trail

Public sources opened for this story

No public sources are attached yet.

Odds chart

Candidate probability over time

Living timeline

Significant updates

  1. Coverage updated

    Observed movement

    Observed probability fell from 10.75% to 1.9% (-8.85 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T16:03:21.502Z to 2026-11-04T16:33:26.436Z (UTC).

    Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.

    The measured move

    PRIVATE: 10.75% → 1.9%

    What changed

    Probability moved from 10.75% to 1.9% (-8.85 percentage points). Observations were 30 minutes 5 seconds apart: 2026-11-04 16:03:21 UTC to 2026-11-04 16:33:26 UTC.

    What to watch next

    Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.

    Sources

    No external sources are attached yet.

  2. Coverage updated

    Observed movement

    Observed probability rose from 2.3% to 10.75% (+8.45 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T15:33:42.163Z to 2026-11-04T16:03:21.502Z (UTC).

Market rules, made readable

Official description

How this market is decided

Read the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.

See what is changing

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round of 16 match between PRIVATE and Dark Moon in the Exort Fiesta Playoffs, initially scheduled for November 4, 2026 at 7:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "PRIVATE" if PRIVATE win the match against Dark Moon. This market will resolve to "Dark Moon" if Dark Moon win the match against PRIVATE.

If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before November 18, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of November 4, 2026 at 7:00 AM ET).

Read the complete resolution rules

If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played.

If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from.

However, if has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching.

Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition.

If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Maps and resolution sources

Living timeline · 2 significant updates

Counter-Strike: PRIVATE vs Dark Moon (BO3) - Exort Fiesta Playoffs — probability falls to 1.9%

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