This market will resolve to "Yes" if Colgate-Palmolive reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $0.96 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release.
Leading outcome
47.5%
48%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 47.5%, up 10.5 percentage points from 37% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 37% → 48%
+10.5 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 37% to 47.5% (+10.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T02:17:21.315Z to 2026-10-20T02:31:03.998Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 37% → 47.5%
Probability moved from 37% to 47.5% (+10.5 percentage points). Observations were 13 minutes 43 seconds apart: 2026-10-20 02:17:21 UTC to 2026-10-20 02:31:03 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 45.5% to 37% (-8.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T01:47:48.548Z to 2026-10-20T02:02:01.105Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 55.5% to 46% (-9.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T00:00:37.301Z to 2026-10-20T00:17:20.899Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 46.5% to 55.5% (+9 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T23:45:56.897Z to 2026-10-20T00:00:37.301Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 50.5% to 46% (-4.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T10:01:34.905Z to 2026-10-19T10:15:56.628Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 63.5% to 50% (-13.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T02:31:48.088Z to 2026-10-19T02:47:02.810Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 44.5% to 63.5% (+19 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T02:18:02.573Z to 2026-10-19T02:31:48.088Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 53% to 42.5% (-10.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T00:45:47.137Z to 2026-10-19T01:01:36.587Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Colgate-Palmolive reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $0.96 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release.
Resolves No
Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
As of market creation, Colgate-Palmolive is estimated to release earnings on October 30, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Colgate-Palmolive’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.96 as of market creation. If Colgate-Palmolive releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha.
If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha.
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Source market
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Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.
If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for non-GAAP EPS as of market creation. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.