This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title.
Leading outcome
95%
95%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 95%, up 3.7 percentage points from 91.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 91% → 95%
+3.7 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 91.3% to 95% (+3.7 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T16:18:18.020Z to 2026-11-04T16:34:39.277Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 91.3% → 95%
Probability moved from 91.3% to 95% (+3.7 percentage points). Observations were 16 minutes 21 seconds apart: 2026-11-04 16:18:18 UTC to 2026-11-04 16:34:39 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 66.85% to 91.3% (+24.45 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T15:47:32.302Z to 2026-11-04T16:18:18.020Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 81.2% to 66.85% (-14.35 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T15:33:42.163Z to 2026-11-04T15:47:32.302Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 87% to 81.2% (-5.8 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T15:18:45.379Z to 2026-11-04T15:33:42.163Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
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Source market
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Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.