closedCrypto

Bitcoin above ___ on November 4?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title.

Current leader

100%

Largest 24h move+89.5 pp 24h

24h volume: $232.7K
Liquidity: $0
Closed: Nov 4, 2026, 5:00 PM UTC

Top candidates

1 outcome

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on November 4?
+89.5 pp 24h100%

Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).

Latest update

SurgeMonitoring onlyNov 4

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on November 4? — probability rises to 99.2%

The tracked probability rose to 99.2%, up 4.2 percentage points from 95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.

Yes: 95% → 99%

+4.2 pp

Sources and full timeline

Story so far

Known catalysts

Supported by the sources below

No catalyst has been confirmed yet.

Unresolved questions

What the evidence doesn’t settle

Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.

People and institutions to watch

Nothing specific is being tracked yet.

Source trail

Public sources opened for this story

No public sources are attached yet.

Odds chart

Candidate probability over time

Living timeline

Significant updates

Coverage updated Nov 4, 2026, 4:47 PM UTC
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 95% to 99.2% (+4.2 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T16:34:39.277Z to 2026-11-04T16:47:02.857Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 95% → 99.2%
What changed
Probability moved from 95% to 99.2% (+4.2 percentage points). Observations were 12 minutes 24 seconds apart: 2026-11-04 16:34:39 UTC to 2026-11-04 16:47:02 UTC.
What to watch next
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
Sources
No external sources are attached yet.
Coverage updated Nov 4, 2026, 4:34 PM UTC
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 91.3% to 95% (+3.7 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T16:18:18.020Z to 2026-11-04T16:34:39.277Z (UTC).
Coverage updated Nov 4, 2026, 4:18 PM UTC
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 66.85% to 91.3% (+24.45 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T15:47:32.302Z to 2026-11-04T16:18:18.020Z (UTC).
Coverage updated Nov 4, 2026, 3:47 PM UTC
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 81.2% to 66.85% (-14.35 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T15:33:42.163Z to 2026-11-04T15:47:32.302Z (UTC).
Coverage updated Nov 4, 2026, 3:33 PM UTC
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 87% to 81.2% (-5.8 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T15:18:45.379Z to 2026-11-04T15:33:42.163Z (UTC).

Market rules, made readable

Official description

How this market is decided

Read the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.

See what is changing

Resolves Yes

Resolves No

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Maps and resolution sources

BTC USDTbinance.com

Living timeline · 5 significant updates

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on November 4? — probability rises to 99.2%

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