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Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on October 13?

By PolySays EditorialUpdated Editorial method

Post

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on October 13, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on the most recent prior trading day.

Current leader

0%

0%

Largest 24h move-33.0 pp 24h
24h volume
$8.2K
Liquidity
$0
Closed

Top candidates

1 outcome

  • Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on October 13?

    -33.0 pp 24h0%

Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).

Latest update

PlungeMonitoring only

Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on October 13? — probability falls to 0.05%

This outcome moved down 14.05 percentage points, from 14.1% to 0.05%.

Up: 14% → 0%

-14.1 pp
Sources and full timeline

Story so far

Recently updated

This outcome moved down 14.05 percentage points, from 14.1% to 0.05%.

A sourced or deterministic market update is available.

Known catalysts

Supported by the sources below

  • No catalyst has been confirmed yet.

Unresolved questions

What the evidence doesn’t settle

  • Watch subsequent price observations and reporting that addresses the contract's exact conditions. Market prices do not determine the official outcome.

People and institutions to watch

Nothing specific is being tracked yet.

Source trail

Public sources opened for this story

No public sources are attached yet.

Odds chart

Candidate probability over time

Living timeline

Significant updates

  1. The figures come from the observed market prices over the stated window. They show a change in pricing, without identifying the event or information that prompted it.

    The measured move

    Up: 14.1% → 0.1%

    What changed

    Probability moved from 14.1% to 0.05% (-14.05 percentage points). Observations were 9 minutes 42 seconds apart: 2026-10-13 21:00:20 UTC to 2026-10-13 21:10:03 UTC.

    What to watch next

    Watch subsequent price observations and reporting that addresses the contract's exact conditions. Market prices do not determine the official outcome.

    Sources

    No external sources are attached yet.

Market rules, made readable

Official description

How this market is decided

Read the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.

See what is changing

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on October 13, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on October 13, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on the most recent prior trading day.

E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless Friday were not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, in which case it would refer to the next most recent prior trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.

Read the complete resolution rules

If Gold (XAUUSD) does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, the market will resolve 50-50. Trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth.

Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours trading-hours as listed on Pyth. If a listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50.

For each trading day, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (closing at 5:00 PM ET) on that date. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (closing at 5:00 PM ET), the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved prior to 4:59 PM ET during that trading day as the effective closing price.

If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the closing price for that day may be determined using the official daily close price of the CME COMEX Gold Futures (GC) futures contract for that trading day. Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session will be considered.

In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at.

Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Maps and resolution sources

Living timeline · 12 significant updates

Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on October 13? — probability falls to 0.05%

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Source market

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Figures refresh periodically, not tick by tick. PolySays explains markets; it doesn’t run one or give trading advice.

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