Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyGold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on October 13? — probability falls to 0.05%
This outcome moved down 14.05 percentage points, from 14.1% to 0.05%.
Up: 14% → 0%
-14.1 ppBy PolySays EditorialUpdated Editorial method
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on October 13, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on the most recent prior trading day.
Current leader
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1 outcome
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on October 13?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThis outcome moved down 14.05 percentage points, from 14.1% to 0.05%.
Up: 14% → 0%
-14.1 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThis outcome moved down 14.05 percentage points, from 14.1% to 0.05%.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
The figures come from the observed market prices over the stated window. They show a change in pricing, without identifying the event or information that prompted it.
The measured move
Up: 14.1% → 0.1%
Probability moved from 14.1% to 0.05% (-14.05 percentage points). Observations were 9 minutes 42 seconds apart: 2026-10-13 21:00:20 UTC to 2026-10-13 21:10:03 UTC.
Watch subsequent price observations and reporting that addresses the contract's exact conditions. Market prices do not determine the official outcome.
No external sources are attached yet.
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on October 13, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on October 13, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on the most recent prior trading day.
E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless Friday were not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, in which case it would refer to the next most recent prior trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
If Gold (XAUUSD) does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, the market will resolve 50-50. Trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth.
Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours trading-hours as listed on Pyth. If a listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50.
For each trading day, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (closing at 5:00 PM ET) on that date. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (closing at 5:00 PM ET), the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved prior to 4:59 PM ET during that trading day as the effective closing price.
If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the closing price for that day may be determined using the official daily close price of the CME COMEX Gold Futures (GC) futures contract for that trading day. Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session will be considered.
In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at.
Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
Living timeline · 12 significant updates
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on October 13? — probability falls to 0.05%
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