Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyWTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on October 14? — probability rises to 98.3%
The latest observation puts this outcome at 98.3%, compared with 84.45% at the start of the window.
Up: 84% → 98%
+13.9 ppBy PolySays EditorialUpdated Editorial method
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for the Active Month of ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures (denoted by Pyth as "CLL") for the October 14, 2026 trading day is higher than the Close price for the Active Month of ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures for the most recent prior trading day.
Current leader
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1 outcome
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on October 14?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe latest observation puts this outcome at 98.3%, compared with 84.45% at the start of the window.
Up: 84% → 98%
+13.9 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe latest observation puts this outcome at 98.3%, compared with 84.45% at the start of the window.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
This brief records how the contract was priced at two points in time. The direction and size of the move are measured; a reason for the move has not been verified.
The measured move
Up: 84.5% → 98.3%
Probability moved from 84.45% to 98.3% (+13.85 percentage points). Observations were 25 minutes 57 seconds apart: 2026-10-14 21:03:36 UTC to 2026-10-14 21:29:33 UTC.
Watch subsequent price observations and reporting that addresses the contract's exact conditions. Market prices do not determine the official outcome.
No external sources are attached yet.
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for the Active Month of ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures (denoted by Pyth as "CLL") for the October 14, 2026 trading day is higher than the Close price for the Active Month of ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures for the most recent prior trading day.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for the Active Month of ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures for the October 14, 2026 trading day is lower than the Close price for the Active Month of ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures for the most recent prior trading day.
E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless Friday were not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, in which case it would refer to the next most recent prior trading day.
For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, if the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, or if the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, the market will resolve 50-50. For the purposes of this market, trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading hours schedule for the underlying market (See: "Trading Hours" at.
The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 8:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date, except for the session dated Monday, which begins at 6:00 PM ET on the preceding Sunday, and where modified by holiday or other special hours (See:. The Active Month is the nearest listed contract, except during that contract's final three trading sessions.
At the open of the third-to-last trading session, the next listed contract becomes the Active Month. Each contract's last trading day will be determined by ICE Futures Europe per the WTI Crude Futures contract specification (generally the 4th US business day prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract month, or five US business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a US business day).
The last trading day for each contract is posted at. For example, if the last trading session for the nearest listed contract is the session for Monday the 20th, the next listed contract would become the Active Month at the start of the trading session for Thursday the 16th (8:00 PM ET on Wednesday), assuming a standard trading calendar.
Both closing prices will reference the same underlying contract, specifically the contract that is considered the Active Month at the end of the trading session for the specified date.
If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price.
If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other disruption, the official close price published for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil Futures contract by ICE Futures Europe will be used to determine the closing price for that day (See: with "T-West Texas Intermediate Light Sweet Crude Future" selected).
In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candles for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil Futures contract by ICE Futures Europe available at. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
Living timeline · 2 significant updates
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on October 14? — probability rises to 98.3%
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