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WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above ___ on October 13?

By PolySays EditorialUpdated Editorial method

Post

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above ___ on October 13?

Current leader

100%

100%

Largest 24h move+33.5 pp 24h
24h volume
$11.8K
Liquidity
$0
Closed

Top candidates

4 outcomes

  • WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on October 13?

    +33.5 pp 24h100%

  • WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on October 13?

    +18.4 pp 24h100%

  • WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on October 13?

    +70.0 pp 24h100%

  • WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on October 13?

    +52.4 pp 24h100%

Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).

Latest update

SurgeMonitoring only

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on October 13? — probability rises to 97.55%

The latest observation puts this outcome at 97.55%, compared with 51.25% at the start of the window.

Yes: 51% → 98%

+46.3 pp
Sources and full timeline

Story so far

Recently updated

The latest observation puts this outcome at 97.55%, compared with 51.25% at the start of the window.

A sourced or deterministic market update is available.

Known catalysts

Supported by the sources below

  • No catalyst has been confirmed yet.

Unresolved questions

What the evidence doesn’t settle

  • Watch subsequent price observations and reporting that addresses the contract's exact conditions. Market prices do not determine the official outcome.

People and institutions to watch

Nothing specific is being tracked yet.

Source trail

Public sources opened for this story

No public sources are attached yet.

Odds chart

Candidate probability over time

Living timeline

Significant updates

  1. This brief records how the contract was priced at two points in time. The direction and size of the move are measured; a reason for the move has not been verified.

    The measured move

    Yes: 51.2% → 97.5%

    What changed

    Probability moved from 51.25% to 97.55% (+46.3 percentage points). Observations were 9 minutes 24 seconds apart: 2026-10-13 21:40:46 UTC to 2026-10-13 21:50:10 UTC.

    What to watch next

    Watch subsequent price observations and reporting that addresses the contract's exact conditions. Market prices do not determine the official outcome.

    Sources

    No external sources are attached yet.

Market rules, made readable

Official description

How this market is decided

Read the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.

See what is changing

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above ___ on October 13?

Living timeline · 2 significant updates

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on October 13? — probability rises to 97.55%

Keep exploring

Recent market explanations

Surge

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on October 13? — probability rises to 97.55%

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above ___ on October 13?

Plunge

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on October 13? — probability falls to 51.25%

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above ___ on October 13?

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