This market refers to the tennis match between Katerina Siniakova and Peyton Stearns in the Japan Women's Open, originally scheduled for October 18, 2026 at 9:00PM ET.
Current leader
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1 outcome
Japan Women's Open: Completed Match: Katerina Siniakova vs Peyton Stearns
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 99.95%, up 9.0 percentage points from 91% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Over 2.5: 91% → 100%
+9.0 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability rose to 99.95%, up 9.0 percentage points from 91% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 91% to 99.95% (+8.95 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T09:17:30.377Z to 2026-10-20T09:32:17.451Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Over 2.5: 91% → 99.95%
Probability moved from 91% to 99.95% (+8.95 percentage points). Observations were 14 minutes 47 seconds apart: 2026-10-20 09:17:30 UTC to 2026-10-20 09:32:17 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This market refers to the tennis match between Katerina Siniakova and Peyton Stearns in the Japan Women's Open, originally scheduled for October 18, 2026 at 9:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Katerina Siniakova' if Katerina Siniakova advances against Peyton Stearns. This market will resolve to 'Peyton Stearns' if Peyton Stearns advances against Katerina Siniakova.
If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Living timeline · 1 significant update
Katerina Siniakova vs. Peyton Stearns: Total Sets O/U 2.5 — probability rises to 99.95%
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