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National Bank Open: Coco Gauff vs Elena Rybakina

By PolySays EditorialUpdated Editorial method

This market refers to the tennis match between Coco Gauff and Elena Rybakina in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 12, 2026 at 8:30PM ET.

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Current leader
Elena Rybakina 100%
Leader 24h
0%
24h volume
898.9K
Liquidity
481.4K

Top outcomes

2 outcomes

Elena Rybakina

100%

+26% 24h

Coco Gauff

0%

-26% 24h

Market rules, made readable

Official description

How this market is decided

See what is changing

This market refers to the tennis match between Coco Gauff and Elena Rybakina in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 12, 2026 at 8:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Coco Gauff' if Coco Gauff advances against Elena Rybakina. This market will resolve to 'Elena Rybakina' if Elena Rybakina advances against Coco Gauff.

If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.

Read the complete resolution rules

If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Living timeline · 3 significant updates

Gauff odds collapsed after Rybakina win sent her to the National Bank Open final

Odds chart

Probability over time

Story so far

Up to date

Coco Gauff’s market had already weakened after her National Bank Open semifinal loss, and the latest snapshot shows another sharp drop in Gauff’s implied odds to near zero. The movement is consistent with post-match repricing and a spike in liquidity, but the exact driver of the last 15-minute change is not fully confirmed from the provided data.

This story reflects the latest meaningful update PolySays has published.

Latest update

Gauff odds collapsed after Rybakina win sent her to the National Bank Open final

Coco Gauff’s win probability on the market fell sharply after Elena Rybakina beat her 5-7, 6-2, 6-2 in the National Bank Open semifinal and advanced to the final.

Why this matters

Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.

Known catalysts

  • Elena Rybakina defeated Coco Gauff 5-7, 6-2, 6-2 in the National Bank Open semifinal and advanced to the final.
  • The new movement shows Coco Gauff’s implied odds falling from 0.265 to 0.0005 while liquidity increased sharply, which likely reflects market repricing after the semifinal result.

Unresolved questions

  • Whether the latest low price on Coco Gauff is a temporary liquidity-driven move or a stable repricing.
  • Whether any additional tennis or market-specific news contributed to the latest spike in liquidity beyond the semifinal result.

People and institutions to watch

Coco GauffElena RybakinaNational Bank OpenPolymarket

Source trail

No public sources are attached yet.

Living timeline

Significant updates

  1. Elena Rybakina’s three-set semifinal win over Coco Gauff appears to have driven the market move on Gauff. The matchup result was reported on August 13, 2026, and the odds shift unfolded over the prior 24 hours, with Gauff moving from 0.535 to 0.0005. The timing is consistent with a post-result repricing rather than an unrelated market swing, though the source set only confirms the tennis result and the market data, not a direct cause-and-effect statement from the venue or traders.

    What changed

    Coco Gauff lost to Elena Rybakina 5-7, 6-2, 6-2 in the National Bank Open semifinal, and that result likely coincided with the market’s sharp repricing of Gauff.

    What to watch next

    Watch for any follow-up reporting on the semifinal, injury or retirement notes, and the National Bank Open final matchup, which may help explain whether the plunge was fully event-driven or amplified by thin liquidity.

    Sources

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