By PolySays EditorialUpdated Editorial method
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market…
Current leader
41.7%
42%
1 outcome
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 41.5%, up 4.1 percentage points from 37.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 37% → 42%
+4.1 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability rose to 41.5%, up 4.1 percentage points from 37.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 37.4% to 41.5% (+4.1 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T04:00:25.195Z to 2026-11-04T04:17:08.826Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 37.4% → 41.5%
Probability moved from 37.4% to 41.5% (+4.1 percentage points). Observations were 16 minutes 44 seconds apart: 2026-11-04 04:00:25 UTC to 2026-11-04 04:17:08 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 43% to 39.75% (-3.25 percentage points), from 2026-11-02T23:41:43.631Z to 2026-11-03T13:16:15.064Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 42.3% to 44.5% (+2.2 percentage points), from 2026-11-01T17:03:43.326Z to 2026-11-02T16:39:51.269Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 40.25% to 38.9% (-1.35 percentage points), from 2026-10-29T17:30:31.955Z to 2026-10-29T17:46:19.848Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 35.3% to 40.7% (+5.4 percentage points), from 2026-10-28T13:33:18.713Z to 2026-10-28T20:14:28.060Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 7.5% to 4.5% (-3 percentage points), from 2026-10-26T18:37:05.862Z to 2026-10-27T01:06:01.420Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 35.95% to 34.55% (-1.4 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T09:30:13.568Z to 2026-10-26T18:37:05.862Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 13.5% to 10.5% (-3 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T15:01:00.888Z to 2026-10-20T15:16:44.430Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees).
An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade.
Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify.
The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice.
Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.
Living timeline · 12 significant updates
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? — probability rises to 41.5%
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