Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach __ barrels per day in 2026?
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month.
- Current leader
- 1.1m barrels per day in 2026 96%
- Largest 24h move
- 1.2m barrels per day in 2026 +16%
- 24h volume
- 125.7
- Liquidity
- 16.9K
Top candidates
7 outcomes
1.1m barrels per day in 2026
96%
-3% 24h
1.2m barrels per day in 2026
65%
+16% 24h
1.3m barrels per day in 2026
47%
+1% 24h
1.4m barrels per day in 2026
11%
-1% 24h
1.5m barrels per day in 2026
10%
-1% 24h
Show all outcomes
1.7m barrels per day in 2026
6%
+1%
2m barrels per day in 2026
3%
-0%
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month.
Resolves No
If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
Read the complete resolution rules
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
Living timeline · 0 significant updates
See the evidence and market movement as the story develops.
Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Odds chart showing latest 1.1m barrels per day in 2026 probability of 81%.
Story so far
Still buildingNo event-level story summary has been written yet.
There is not enough public context for a useful story yet.
Latest update
No updates yet
The timeline is waiting for a meaningful movement.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- No catalyst has been confirmed yet.
Unresolved questions
- No open questions have been logged yet.
People and institutions to watch
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline