By PolySays EditorialUpdated Editorial method
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Current leader
100%
100%
1 outcome
Will Trump pardon anyone by October 31?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 100%, up 3.5 percentage points from 96.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 97% → 100%
+3.5 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability rose to 100%, up 3.5 percentage points from 96.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
The probability change is measured directly from the market observations. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied. This note records market behavior only and does not infer a reason for the move.
The measured move
Yes: 96.5% → 100.0%
Probability moved from 96.5% to 100% (+3.5 percentage points). Observations were 30 minutes 22 seconds apart: 2026-10-14 03:10:18 UTC to 2026-10-14 03:40:40 UTC.
Watch for official filings, polling or vote results, candidate announcements, and whether later observations hold the new level.
No external sources are attached yet.
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Living timeline · 1 significant update
Will Trump pardon anyone by October 31? — probability rises to 100%
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