What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit Week of October 19 2026?
Current leader
100%
100%
1 outcome
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 Week of October 19 2026?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 99.95%, up 14.5 percentage points from 85.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 86% → 100%
+14.5 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability rose to 99.95%, up 14.5 percentage points from 85.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 85.5% to 99.95% (+14.45 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T15:15:20.934Z to 2026-10-19T15:32:13.932Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 85.5% → 99.95%
Probability moved from 85.5% to 99.95% (+14.45 percentage points). Observations were 16 minutes 53 seconds apart: 2026-10-19 15:15:20 UTC to 2026-10-19 15:32:13 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 86.5% to 82% (-4.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T14:17:41.465Z to 2026-10-19T14:30:27.868Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 76.5% to 86.5% (+10 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T14:01:09.245Z to 2026-10-19T14:17:41.465Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 83.5% to 78% (-5.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T13:31:28.002Z to 2026-10-19T13:47:37.918Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 82% to 85.5% (+3.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T10:30:53.184Z to 2026-10-19T10:45:14.940Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 90.5% to 84.5% (-6 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T07:02:22.876Z to 2026-10-19T07:32:51.209Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit Week of October 19 2026?
Living timeline · 6 significant updates
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 Week of October 19 2026? — probability rises to 99.95%
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