This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets Iraq through a qualifying military action between market creation and the listed date, Arabia Standard Time (AST).
Current leader
100%
100%
1 outcome
Will Iran target Iraq by October 22, 2026?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 100%, up 3.2 percentage points from 96.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 97% → 100%
+3.2 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability rose to 100%, up 3.2 percentage points from 96.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 96.75% to 100% (+3.25 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T00:49:58.701Z to 2026-10-21T01:02:39.525Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 96.75% → 100%
Probability moved from 96.75% to 100% (+3.25 percentage points). Observations were 12 minutes 41 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 00:49:58 UTC to 2026-10-21 01:02:39 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 81.05% to 99.3% (+18.25 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T22:46:34.146Z to 2026-10-20T23:02:19.474Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 84.15% to 81.05% (-3.1 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T22:30:39.856Z to 2026-10-20T22:46:34.146Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 91% to 84% (-7 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T20:51:55.691Z to 2026-10-20T21:04:34.416Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 96.75% to 93.45% (-3.3 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T12:46:49.756Z to 2026-10-20T13:00:19.880Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 88.5% to 94.5% (+6 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T08:01:12.859Z to 2026-10-20T08:19:56.494Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 90% to 87% (-3 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T07:01:11.780Z to 2026-10-20T07:17:05.181Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 89.5% to 92.5% (+3 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T06:00:09.968Z to 2026-10-20T06:32:36.419Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets Iraq through a qualifying military action between market creation and the listed date, Arabia Standard Time (AST).
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at Iraq.
An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g.
MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.
A military action will be considered directed at Iraq if it is directed at the terrestrial territory of Iraq, including any internal waters. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e.
Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources.
Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action.
If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time.
No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and Iraq and a consensus of credible reporting.
Living timeline · 12 significant updates
Will Iran target Iraq by October 22, 2026? — probability rises to 100%
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