Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by December 31, 2026?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the bitcoin holdings officially owned by the Republic of the El Salvador government reaches or surpasses a value of $1b at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Current leader
- No 67%
- Leader 24h
- -1%
- 24h volume
- 39.9
- Liquidity
- 134.4
Top outcomes
2 outcomes
No
67%
-1% 24h
Yes
33%
+1% 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the bitcoin holdings officially owned by the Republic of the El Salvador government reaches or surpasses a value of $1b at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolutions source for this market will be the ARKHAM INTEL tracker (see:. Any temporary glitches or errors in the tracker will not be considered. If the tracker becomes permanently unavailable another credible source may be used. Official announcements form the government of El Salvador confirming their bitcoin holdings have reached or surpassed $1b in value will also qualify.
Living timeline · 0 significant updates
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Odds chart
Probability over time
Odds chart showing latest No probability of 69%.
Story so far
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Latest update
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Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
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Unresolved questions
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People and institutions to watch
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline