activeWeather+1% 24h

Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (? between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

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Current leader
No 67%
Leader 24h
+1%
24h volume
2.7
Liquidity
1.8K

Top outcomes

2 outcomes

No

67%

+1% 24h

Yes

33%

-1% 24h

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Official description

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Resolves Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (? between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Resolves No

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at.

This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.

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