By PolySays EditorialUpdated Editorial method
This market will resolve according to the next individual who the White House announces has been picked to be the White House Press Secretary who replaces Karoline Leavitt by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Current leader
100%
100%
1 outcome
Will Katie Zacharia be the next White House Press Secretary?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 99.95%, up 3.1 percentage points from 96.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 97% → 100%
+3.1 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability rose to 99.95%, up 3.1 percentage points from 96.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
The probability change is measured directly from the market observations. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied. This note records market behavior only and does not infer a reason for the move.
The measured move
Yes: 96.9% → 100.0%
Probability moved from 96.85% to 99.95% (+3.1 percentage points). Observations were 30 minutes 1 second apart: 2026-10-09 19:20:29 UTC to 2026-10-09 19:50:29 UTC.
Watch for official filings, polling or vote results, candidate announcements, and whether later observations hold the new level.
No external sources are attached yet.
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This market will resolve according to the next individual who the White House announces has been picked to be the White House Press Secretary who replaces Karoline Leavitt by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A person being announced as an acting or interim holder of the position will not count for purposes of this market.
In the event that no individual is chosen to replace Karoline Leavitt, or the role is abolished, by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Once a qualifying announcement has occurred, subsequent withdrawals or replacement announcements will not affect resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the White House and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Living timeline · 1 significant update
Will Katie Zacharia be the next White House Press Secretary? — probability rises to 99.95%
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