This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less.
Current leader
6.3%
6%
1 outcome
Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 6.25%, up 4.9 percentage points from 1.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 1% → 6%
+4.9 ppStory so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 1.35% to 6.25% (+4.9 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T04:46:35.351Z to 2026-11-04T05:18:10.881Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 1.35% → 6.25%
Probability moved from 1.35% to 6.25% (+4.9 percentage points). Observations were 31 minutes 36 seconds apart: 2026-11-04 04:46:35 UTC to 2026-11-04 05:18:10 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates.
Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Living timeline · 1 significant update
Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%? — probability rises to 6.25%
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