Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026.
- Current leader
- Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026 74%
- Largest 24h move
- Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026 +3%
- 24h volume
- 4K
- Liquidity
- 147.7K
Top candidates
7 outcomes
Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026
74%
-2% 24h
Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026
22%
+3% 24h
Toy Story 5 have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026
4%
-0% 24h
The Odyssey have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026
1%
+1% 24h
Dune: Messiah have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026
0%
0% 24h
Show all outcomes
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026
0%
0%
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026
0%
0%
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
Read the complete resolution rules
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Living timeline · 0 significant updates
See the evidence and market movement as the story develops.
Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Odds chart showing latest Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026 probability of 71%.
Story so far
Still buildingNo event-level story summary has been written yet.
There is not enough public context for a useful story yet.
Latest update
No updates yet
The timeline is waiting for a meaningful movement.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- No catalyst has been confirmed yet.
Unresolved questions
- No open questions have been logged yet.
People and institutions to watch
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline