Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?
This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET.
- Current leader
- Israel recognize Palestine before 2027 49%
- Largest 24h move
- Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027 +9%
- 24h volume
- 492.5
- Liquidity
- 89.8K
Top candidates
11 outcomes
Israel recognize Palestine before 2027
49%
0% 24h
The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027
20%
-1% 24h
New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027
19%
0% 24h
Italy recognize Palestine before 2027
17%
+0% 24h
Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027
14%
+9% 24h
Show all outcomes
Finland recognize Palestine before 2027
14%
0%
Greece recognize Palestine before 2027
12%
0%
Japan recognize Palestine before 2027
10%
-1%
the US recognize Palestine before 2027
8%
+1%
Germany recognize Palestine before 2027
6%
0%
Austria recognize Palestine before 2027
5%
0%
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information.
However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Living timeline · 0 significant updates
See the evidence and market movement as the story develops.
Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Odds chart showing latest Israel recognize Palestine before 2027 probability of 8%.
Story so far
Still buildingNo event-level story summary has been written yet.
There is not enough public context for a useful story yet.
Latest update
No updates yet
The timeline is waiting for a meaningful movement.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- No catalyst has been confirmed yet.
Unresolved questions
- No open questions have been logged yet.
People and institutions to watch
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline