This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Current leader
2.9%
3%
1 outcome
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability fell to 5%, down 5.0 percentage points from 10% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 10% → 5%
-5.0 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability fell to 5%, down 5.0 percentage points from 10% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 10% to 5% (-5 percentage points), from 2026-10-29T12:51:24.447Z to 2026-10-29T13:16:44.171Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 10% → 5%
Probability moved from 10% to 5% (-5 percentage points). Observations were 25 minutes 20 seconds apart: 2026-10-29 12:51:24 UTC to 2026-10-29 13:16:44 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead.
If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard.
If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Living timeline · 1 significant update
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026? — probability falls to 5%
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