Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any song by the listed artist is the number 1 song in any official weekly Billboard Hot 100 songs chart released for a data collection reference period entirely between January 1 and December 31, 2026.
- Current leader
- Mariah Carey have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026 89%
- Largest 24h move
- Peso Pluma have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026 -41%
- 24h volume
- 51.5
- Liquidity
- 11.3K
Top candidates
23 outcomes
Mariah Carey have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026
89%
-1% 24h
Peso Pluma have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026
60%
-41% 24h
Sabrina Carpenter have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026
54%
-23% 24h
Rihanna have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026
51%
-29% 24h
SZA have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026
51%
-29% 24h
Show all outcomes
Playboi Carti have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026
50%
-9%
Tyler, The Creator have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026
49%
-1%
Post Malone have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026
49%
-2%
Travis Scott have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026
49%
+18%
Morgan Wallen have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026
46%
-3%
Zach Bryan have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026
45%
-27%
Kendrick Lamar have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026
45%
-14%
Luke Combs have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026
42%
0%
Lil Baby have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026
41%
0%
The Weeknd have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026
37%
0%
Future have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026
28%
0%
Billie Eilish have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026
27%
0%
Jack Harlow have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026
26%
0%
Ed Sheeran have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026
23%
0%
Frank Ocean have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026
13%
0%
Doja Cat have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026
10%
0%
A$AP Rocky have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026
8%
0%
Kanye West have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026
6%
0%
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any song by the listed artist is the number 1 song in any official weekly Billboard Hot 100 songs chart released for a data collection reference period entirely between January 1 and December 31, 2026.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any song released with the listed artist as a primary artist will count, including songs released before 2026. If a song is released jointly by multiple artists credited equally as primary artists, it will count for all of them. Features, writing credits, production credits, or other forms of non-primary contributions to a song will not count.
Artist attribution will be determined solely by the artists displayed by Billboard on the relevant chart. Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data collected in the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”.
Read the complete resolution rules
The first Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will be the chart titled “Week of January 17, 2026” for a data collection reference period of January 2-8, 2026. The final Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will be the Chart titled “Week of January 9, 2027” for a data collection reference period of December 25-31, 2026.
Updates or revisions made within this market’s timeframe to the #1-ranked song on previously published Billboard Hot 100 charts will be considered; however, such updates will not disqualify a previously published Billboard Hot 100 #1 song from counting. If a Billboard Hot 100 #1 song is revised after initial publication, both the originally published #1 song and the revised #1 song will count for this market.
Updates or revisions made after the release of the final Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be the weekly Billboard Hot 100 songs charts published each week at and through other official Billboard channels.
Living timeline · 2 significant updates
Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet
Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Odds chart showing latest Mariah Carey have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026 probability of 88%.
Story so far
Needs a refreshNo event-level story summary has been written yet.
No major update has changed the story in 20 days.
Latest update
Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet
Frank Ocean have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026 moved lower from 18.2% to 13.0% (-5.2 points) between 2026-06-23T18:45:48.928Z and 2026-06-24T18:45:48.928Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- No catalyst has been confirmed yet.
Unresolved questions
- No open questions have been logged yet.
People and institutions to watch
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline
Significant updates
The "Frank Ocean have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026" outcome in "Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year?" made a sharp move from 18.2% to 13.0% between 2026-06-23T18:45:48.928Z and 2026-06-24T18:45:48.928Z. PolySays has not found a clear public news source, official statement, or other confirmed catalyst that explains the timing of this move. The move may reflect private interpretation, social discussion, liquidity conditions, or information that has not yet appeared in reliable public sources.
What changed
The market repriced by -5.2 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
What to watch next
Watch for official statements, later reporting, social posts that become verifiable public context, and whether volume or the new probability level holds in later snapshots.
Sources
No external sources are attached yet.