closedWeather

Where will it rain on October 9?

By PolySays EditorialUpdated Oct 10, 2026, 10:30 AM UTCEditorial method

Post

This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed city that records measurable precipitation on October 9, 2026.

Current leader

Largest 24h move-10.4 pp 24h

24h volume: $689
Liquidity: $0
Closed: Oct 10, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC

Top candidates

1 outcome

Will it rain in New Orleans, LA on October 9?
-10.4 pp 24h0%

Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).

Latest update

PlungeMonitoring onlyOct 10

Will it rain in New Orleans, LA on October 9? — probability falls to 1.05%

The tracked probability fell to 1.05%, down 13.9 percentage points from 15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.

Yes: 15% → 1%

-14.0 pp

Sources and full timeline

Story so far

Known catalysts

Supported by the sources below

No catalyst has been confirmed yet.

Unresolved questions

What the evidence doesn’t settle

Watch for official confirmation, independent reporting, sustained volume, and whether later market observations hold the new level.

People and institutions to watch

Nothing specific is being tracked yet.

Source trail

Public sources opened for this story

No public sources are attached yet.

Odds chart

Candidate probability over time

Living timeline

Significant updates

The probability change is measured directly from the market observations. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied. This note records market behavior only and does not infer a reason for the move.
The measured move
Yes: 15.0% → 1.1%
What changed
Probability moved from 15% to 1.05% (-13.95 percentage points). Observations were 9 minutes 19 seconds apart: 2026-10-10 10:20:52 UTC to 2026-10-10 10:30:11 UTC.
What to watch next
Watch for official confirmation, independent reporting, sustained volume, and whether later market observations hold the new level.
Sources
No external sources are attached yet.

Market rules, made readable

Official description

How this market is decided

Read the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.

See what is changing

Resolves Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed city that records measurable precipitation on October 9, 2026.

Resolves No

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Measurable precipitation means 0.01 inches or more as reported by the PRECIPITATION (IN) figure in the NWS Daily Climate Report (CLI) for the city's station. A report of trace ("T") does not qualify. The PRECIPITATION (IN) figure measures total liquid-equivalent precipitation and does not distinguish between precipitation types.

The observation period is the NWS climate day for each station: midnight to midnight local standard time. The final CLI report for a climate day is issued the following morning. Each city is an independent market. Any number of cities may resolve "Yes", including all of them or none of them. This market will resolve according to the NWS Daily Climate Report as published by 2:00 PM ET on the day following the observation date.

Read the complete resolution rules

If multiple versions of the report are issued, the last version published before that time governs. If no figure has been published by that time, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report (CLI) for each city's station.