Where will it rain on October 8?
By PolySays EditorialReporting published Editorial method
This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed city that records measurable precipitation on October 8, 2026.
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- Current leader
- 49%Will it rain in Atlanta, GA on October 8?
- Largest 24h move
- -25.0 pp
- 24h volume
- 116
- Liquidity
- 42.4
Top candidates
2 outcomes
Will it rain in Atlanta, GA on October 8?
49%
-0.6 pp 24h
Will it rain in Philadelphia, PA on October 8?
25%
-25.0 pp 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed city that records measurable precipitation on October 8, 2026.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Measurable precipitation means 0.01 inches or more as reported by the PRECIPITATION (IN) figure in the NWS Daily Climate Report (CLI) for the city's station. A report of trace ("T") does not qualify. The PRECIPITATION (IN) figure measures total liquid-equivalent precipitation and does not distinguish between precipitation types.
The observation period is the NWS climate day for each station: midnight to midnight local standard time. The final CLI report for a climate day is issued the following morning. Each city is an independent market. Any number of cities may resolve "Yes", including all of them or none of them. This market will resolve according to the NWS Daily Climate Report as published by 2:00 PM ET on the day following the observation date.
Read the complete resolution rules
If multiple versions of the report are issued, the last version published before that time governs. If no figure has been published by that time, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report (CLI) for each city's station.
Living timeline · 4 significant updates
Will it rain in Philadelphia, PA on October 8? — probability rises to 25%
Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Latest chart observation: . Reporting is updated separately.
Story so far
Published updateThe tracked probability fell to 1%, down 48.5 percentage points from 49.5% in the latest observation window. Only background evidence is available, so it is not used to explain the repricing.
This summary reflects the reporting below. Market odds can change between published updates.
Latest published update
Published
Will it rain in Philadelphia, PA on October 8? — probability rises to 25%
The tracked probability rose to 25%, up 24.0 percentage points from 1% in the latest observation window. The price increase is recorded; its cause remains unverified.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- No confirmed catalyst is recorded in this summary.
Unresolved questions
- Watch for official confirmation, independent reporting, sustained volume, and whether later market observations hold the new level.
People and institutions to watch
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Source trail
- https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiwwFBVV95cUxOdW1GNHJnS3IwRzYwWlVZZWgtMmpvZUtUbEstYk1iSkR4LUZkLWhBeUhIcFFXX0dwQkJhWUdPbi1mbnd6dVFrRk56VDN6bTR6ei1nM2dwRk52V013MjdDX1gzbG9kcjBpV01WQ3dlS21qbEt2cF80UTh4TlR1LTNTbjJINjVldUlKTVRnaGk1ZnBORS1GNW5UenJRYzZPd1ZJaHBZYUZ6ZWxncHRVSFZZb2JNQ0lGdllqQTc0MkJqUDZwNjA?oc=5
- https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiwwFBVV95cUxOdW1GNHJnS3IwRzYwWlVZZWgtMmpvZUtUbEstYk1iSkR4LUZkLWhBeUhIcFFXX0dwQkJhWUdPbi1mbnd6dVFrRk56VDN6bTR6ei1nM2dwRk52V013MjdDX1gzbG9kcjBpV01WQ3dlS21qbEt2cF80UTh4TlR1LTNTbjJINjVldUlKTVRnaGk1ZnBORS1GNW5UenJRYzZPd1ZJaHBZYUZ6ZWxncHRVSFZZb2JNQ0lGdllqQTc0MkJqUDZwNjA?oc=5
Living timeline
Significant updates
The market data establishes the size and direction of the change. A dated source addressing the exact contract would be needed to add an explanation.
What changed
Probability moved from 1% to 25% (+24 percentage points). Observations were 10 minutes 33 seconds apart: 2026-10-08 16:30:57 UTC to 2026-10-08 16:41:31 UTC.
What to watch next
Watch for official confirmation, independent reporting, sustained volume, and whether later market observations hold the new level.
Sources
No external sources are attached yet.
Keep exploring
More market explanations
Will it rain in Philadelphia, PA on October 8? — probability rises to 25%
Where will it rain on October 8?
Will it rain in Atlanta, GA on October 8? — probability falls to 1%
Where will it rain on October 8?
Will it rain in Atlanta, GA on October 8? — probability rises to 49.5%
Where will it rain on October 8?
Will it rain in Philadelphia, PA on October 8? — probability rises to 25%
Where will it rain on October 8?