closedWeather

Where will it rain on October 12?

By PolySays EditorialUpdated Oct 13, 2026, 6:09 PM UTCEditorial method

Post

This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed city that records measurable precipitation on October 12, 2026.

Current leader

100%

Largest 24h move+78.0 pp 24h

24h volume: $2.3K
Liquidity: $0
Closed: Oct 13, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC

Top candidates

6 outcomes

Will it rain in Phoenix, AZ on October 12?
+78.0 pp 24h100%
Will it rain in Philadelphia, PA on October 12?
+3.0 pp 24h100%
Will it rain in Washington, DC on October 12?
+2.0 pp 24h100%
Will it rain in Houston, TX on October 12?
-50.0 pp 24h0%
Will it rain in Miami, FL on October 12?
-6.5 pp 24h0%

Show all outcomes

Will it rain in New York, NY on October 12?
0%
-2.6 pp

Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).

Latest update

PlungeMonitoring onlyOct 13

Will it rain in New York, NY on October 12? — probability falls to 0.05%

This outcome's observed probability decreased by 24.95 percentage points to 0.05%, from 25%.

Yes: 25% → 0%

-24.9 pp

Sources and full timeline

Story so far

Known catalysts

Supported by the sources below

No catalyst has been confirmed yet.

Unresolved questions

What the evidence doesn’t settle

Watch subsequent price observations and reporting that addresses the contract's exact conditions. Market prices do not determine the official outcome.

People and institutions to watch

Nothing specific is being tracked yet.

Source trail

Public sources opened for this story

No public sources are attached yet.

Odds chart

Candidate probability over time

Living timeline

Significant updates

The market observations support the prices and change shown here. A price move alone cannot confirm a real-world result or explain traders' decisions.
The measured move
Yes: 25.0% → 0.1%
What changed
Probability moved from 25% to 0.05% (-24.95 percentage points). Observations were 11 minutes 14 seconds apart: 2026-10-13 17:57:56 UTC to 2026-10-13 18:09:10 UTC.
What to watch next
Watch subsequent price observations and reporting that addresses the contract's exact conditions. Market prices do not determine the official outcome.
Sources
No external sources are attached yet.

Market rules, made readable

Official description

How this market is decided

Read the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.

See what is changing

Resolves Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed city that records measurable precipitation on October 12, 2026.

Resolves No

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Measurable precipitation means 0.01 inches or more as reported by the PRECIPITATION (IN) figure in the NWS Daily Climate Report (CLI) for the city's station. A report of trace ("T") does not qualify. The PRECIPITATION (IN) figure measures total liquid-equivalent precipitation and does not distinguish between precipitation types.

The observation period is the NWS climate day for each station: midnight to midnight local standard time. The final CLI report for a climate day is issued the following morning. Each city is an independent market. Any number of cities may resolve "Yes", including all of them or none of them. This market will resolve according to the NWS Daily Climate Report as published by 2:00 PM ET on the day following the observation date.

Read the complete resolution rules

If multiple versions of the report are issued, the last version published before that time governs. If no figure has been published by that time, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report (CLI) for each city's station.