When will the first hurricane form in the Atlantic in 2026?
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane of 2026 forms, as classified by the U.S.
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1 outcome
Will the first Atlantic hurricane form between October 1 and October 10, 2026?
47%
+46.0 pp 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves No
In the event that the NHC has not published any data by October 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the NHC becomes unavailable, this market will resolve to "No Atlantic hurricane will form in October 2026".
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane of 2026 forms, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). As of market creation the NHC had not classified any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any point in the 2026 season, so the first Atlantic hurricane of 2026 is the first Atlantic-basin system the NHC classifies as a hurricane during October 2026.
Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale).
Read the complete resolution rules
A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the issuance timestamp of the first NHC public advisory classifying it as a hurricane in the Atlantic basin, not the estimated time at which its winds first reached 74 mph. That first advisory governs regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification.
A system whose first classifying advisory straddles midnight between October 31 and November 1, 2026 falls in the October 26 to October 31 bracket only if that advisory was issued before 12:00 AM ET on November 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in October 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on October 31, 2026, regardless of whether an Atlantic hurricane forms later in 2026. The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here:
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