By PolySays EditorialUpdated Editorial method
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between October 12, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Current leader
100%
100%
1 outcome
Will Trump say "Dad" or "Daddy" this week?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 97.5%, up 50.5 percentage points from 47% in the latest observation window. The cause of this move is not established.
Yes: 47% → 98%
+50.5 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability rose to 97.5%, up 50.5 percentage points from 47% in the latest observation window. The cause of this move is not established.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 47% to 97.5% (+50.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T18:47:43.830Z to 2026-10-17T19:00:35.114Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 47% → 97.5%
Probability moved from 47% to 97.5% (+50.5 percentage points). Observations were 12 minutes 51 seconds apart: 2026-10-17 18:47:43 UTC to 2026-10-17 19:00:35 UTC. The stated rules end at 2026-10-19 03:59:00 UTC, 1 day 8 hours 58 minutes 25 seconds after the last observation. Timing alone does not explain the move.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 53.5% to 50% (-3.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T04:45:26.711Z to 2026-10-17T05:15:54.898Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between October 12, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For full rules, see:
Living timeline · 4 significant updates
Will Trump say "Dad" or "Daddy" this week? — probability rises to 97.5%
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