By PolySays EditorialUpdated Editorial method
Donald Trump is scheduled to give remarks during his Midterm Rally in Wasilla, Alaska on October 13, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET. ( This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during the specified appearance.
Current leader
100%
100%
6 outcomes
Will Trump say "Transgender" 5+ times during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?
Will Trump say "California" during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?
Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?
Will Trump say "Fish" or "Fishing" or "Fisherman" during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?
Will Trump say "Hormuz" during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?
Will Trump say "Reagan" during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?
0%
-52.0 pp
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThis outcome's observed probability decreased by 13.5 percentage points to 0%, from 13.5%.
Yes: 14% → 0%
-13.5 ppStory so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.
Odds chart
Living timeline
The market observations support the prices and change shown here. A price move alone cannot confirm a real-world result or explain traders' decisions.
The measured move
Yes: 13.5% → 0.0%
Probability moved from 13.5% to 0% (-13.5 percentage points). Observations were 29 minutes 51 seconds apart: 2026-10-14 03:30:31 UTC to 2026-10-14 04:00:22 UTC.
Watch subsequent price observations and reporting that addresses the contract's exact conditions. Market prices do not determine the official outcome.
No external sources are attached yet.
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
Donald Trump is scheduled to give remarks during his Midterm Rally in Wasilla, Alaska on October 13, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET. ( This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during the specified appearance.
Resolves No
Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
This market is explicitly about Trump's remarks at the Midterm Rally in Alaska on October 13, 2026. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. The resolution source will be audio/video of the event. For full rules, see:
Living timeline · 1 significant update
Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during his Midterm Rally in Alaska? — probability falls to 0%
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