What will Trump post this week? (October 5 - October 11)
By PolySays EditorialUpdated Editorial method
This market will resolve to "Yes" if @realDonaldTrump posts/truths the listed term between October 5, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
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- Current leader
- 74% 74%
- Largest 24h move
- -9.0 pp
- 24h volume
- 12.3
- Liquidity
- 19.4
Top candidates
1 outcome
Will Trump post "Deranged" or "Derangement" on Truth Social this week?
74%
-9.0 pp 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if @realDonaldTrump posts/truths the listed term between October 5, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, all text posted by the listed account in quote and reply posts/truths count toward a "Yes" resolution, but quoted posts/truths and reposts/reTruths will not count.
Text posted in images, memes, or other non-animated, non-video media that are not strictly text will qualify towards a "Yes" resolution only if the listed term is spelled out clearly and in full. (e.g., words spelled out in a letter posted as a.jpg will qualify, however a word posted as part of an animated.gif will not.) Any plural or possessive forms of a listed term, as well as variance in capitalizations, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context.
Read the complete resolution rules
Other forms of the listed term will NOT count. Extraneous symbols being inserted into a word (ex: r@d1cal, for "radical") will disqualify it from counting toward a "Yes" resolution. Sigils at the beginnings of words, such as hashtags, "@" symbols, or denotations of currency, will not disqualify a term from counting towards a "Yes" resolution.
Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all grammatical or slang forms, or misspellings with extra, missing, or incorrect letters (ex: helloooooooo or heoll, for 'hello'), will not count toward a "Yes" resolution, regardless of context or intent.
Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").
The resolution source for this market will be Donald Trump's verified Truth Social account: @realDonaldTrump Please note, only the @realDonaldTrump verified Truth Social account counts for this market, regardless of the URL for this profile. If Donald Trump posts/truths from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Living timeline · 1 significant update
Will Trump post "Deranged" or "Derangement" on Truth Social this week? — probability rises to 50.5%
Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Story so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability rose to 50.5%, up 23.5 percentage points from 27% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Latest update
Will Trump post "Deranged" or "Derangement" on Truth Social this week? — probability rises to 50.5%
The tracked probability rose to 50.5%, up 23.5 percentage points from 27% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- No catalyst has been confirmed yet.
Unresolved questions
- Watch for official filings, polling or vote results, candidate announcements, and whether later observations hold the new level.
People and institutions to watch
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline
Significant updates
The probability change is measured directly from the market observations. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied. This note records market behavior only and does not infer a reason for the move.
What changed
Probability moved from 27% to 50.5% (+23.5 percentage points). Observations were 19 minutes 26 seconds apart: 2026-10-06 14:30:56 UTC to 2026-10-06 14:50:22 UTC. The stated rules end at 2026-10-12 03:59:00 UTC, 5 days 13 hours 8 minutes 38 seconds after the last observation. Timing alone does not explain the move.
What to watch next
Watch for official filings, polling or vote results, candidate announcements, and whether later observations hold the new level.
Sources
No external sources are attached yet.
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