By PolySays EditorialUpdated Editorial method
JD Vance is scheduled to give remarks during his Midterm Rally in Lima, Ohio on October 9, 2026 at 12:15 PM ET. ( This market will resolve to "Yes" if JD Vance says the listed term during the specified appearance.
Current leader
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1 outcome
Will JD Vance say "Illegal Alien" during his Midterm Rally in Ohio?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability fell to 0%, down 20.5 percentage points from 20.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 21% → 0%
-20.5 ppStory so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.
Odds chart
Living timeline
The probability change is measured directly from the market observations. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied. This note records market behavior only and does not infer a reason for the move.
The measured move
Yes: 20.5% → 0.0%
Probability moved from 20.5% to 0% (-20.5 percentage points). Observations were 29 minutes 59 seconds apart: 2026-10-09 22:10:15 UTC to 2026-10-09 22:40:14 UTC.
Watch for official filings, polling or vote results, candidate announcements, and whether later observations hold the new level.
No external sources are attached yet.
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
JD Vance is scheduled to give remarks during his Midterm Rally in Lima, Ohio on October 9, 2026 at 12:15 PM ET. ( This market will resolve to "Yes" if JD Vance says the listed term during the specified appearance.
Resolves No
Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
This market is explicitly about JD Vance's remarks at the Midterm Rally in Ohio on October 9, 2026. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. The resolution source will be audio/video of the event. For full rules, see:
Living timeline · 1 significant update
Will JD Vance say "Illegal Alien" during his Midterm Rally in Ohio? — probability falls to 0%
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