By PolySays EditorialUpdated Editorial method
This market will resolve to "Yes" if @elonmusk posts the listed term between October 12, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Current leader
34.5%
35%
1 outcome
Will Elon post "India" on X this week?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability fell to 36%, down 5.5 percentage points from 41.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 42% → 36%
-5.5 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability fell to 36%, down 5.5 percentage points from 41.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 41.5% to 36% (-5.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T23:17:19.620Z to 2026-10-18T23:30:07.578Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 41.5% → 36%
Probability moved from 41.5% to 36% (-5.5 percentage points). Observations were 12 minutes 48 seconds apart: 2026-10-18 23:17:19 UTC to 2026-10-18 23:30:07 UTC. The stated rules end at 2026-10-19 03:59:00 UTC, 4 hours 28 minutes 52 seconds after the last observation. Timing alone does not explain the move.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 51% to 41.5% (-9.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T13:00:35.277Z to 2026-10-18T13:17:32.571Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 62% to 50% (-12 percentage points), from 2026-10-15T21:00:32.533Z to 2026-10-15T21:16:59.067Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if @elonmusk posts the listed term between October 12, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For the purposes of this market, all text posted by the listed account in quote and reply posts count toward a "Yes" resolution, but quoted posts and reposts will not count.
Text posted in images, memes, or other non-animated, non-video media that are not strictly text will qualify towards a "Yes" resolution only if the listed term is spelled out clearly and in full. (e.g., words spelled out in a letter posted as a.jpg will qualify, however a word posted as part of an animated.gif will not.) Any plural or possessive forms of a listed term, as well as variance in capitalizations, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context.
Other forms of the listed term will NOT count. Extraneous symbols being inserted into a word (ex: r@d1cal, for "radical") will disqualify it from counting toward a "Yes" resolution. Sigils at the beginnings of words, such as hashtags, "@" symbols, or denotations of currency, will not disqualify a term from counting towards a "Yes" resolution.
Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all grammatical or slang forms, or misspellings with extra, missing, or incorrect letters (ex: helloooooooo or heoll, for ‘hello’), will not count toward a “Yes” resolution, regardless of context or intent.
Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). The resolution source for this market will be Elon Musk's verified X account: @elonmusk Please note, only the @elonmusk verified X account counts for this market, regardless of the URL for this profile.
If Elon Musk posts from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Living timeline · 12 significant updates
Will Elon post "India" on X this week? — probability falls to 36%
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