activeFinance(LOW) $80 in August -1% 24h

What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in August 2026?

By PolySays EditorialUpdated Editorial method

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Current leader
(LOW) $80 in August 62%
Largest 24h move
(LOW) $80 in August -1%
24h volume
315K
Liquidity
1.1M

Top candidates

21 outcomes

(LOW) $80 in August

62%

-1% 24h

(HIGH) $90 in August

42%

0% 24h

(HIGH) $85 in August

35%

0% 24h

(HIGH) $95 in August

19%

0% 24h

(LOW) $75 in August

16%

0% 24h

Show all outcomes

(HIGH) $100 in August

9%

0%

(LOW) $70 in August

5%

0%

(HIGH) $105 in August

4%

0%

(HIGH) $110 in August

2%

0%

(LOW) $65 in August

1%

0%

(HIGH) $115 in August

1%

0%

(HIGH) $120 in August

1%

0%

(HIGH) $140 in August

1%

0%

(HIGH) $130 in August

1%

0%

(LOW) $55 in August

0%

0%

(HIGH) $150 in August

0%

0%

(LOW) $50 in August

0%

0%

(LOW) $60 in August

0%

-0%

(LOW) $40 in August

0%

0%

(LOW) $30 in August

0%

0%

(LOW) $20 in August

0%

0%

Odds chart

Candidate probability over time

Story so far

Needs a refresh

WTI August threshold markets have remained broadly bullish overall, but the latest major change was a sharp drop in the $65-low market from 7.0% to 1.85% between August 12 and August 18, 2026. That move appears to have come alongside weaker crude sentiment and demand concerns, though the exact driver is not fully confirmed.

No major update has changed the story in 34 days.

Latest update

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in August in What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in: Yes odds 39% → 20.5%

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in August moved lower from 39.0% to 20.5% (-18.5 points) between 2026-08-17T08:00:14.000Z and 2026-08-18T08:03:05.395Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

Why this matters

Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.

Known catalysts

  • Firmer crude pricing has likely continued to support higher-threshold odds.
  • Attention to Iran-Oman talks and broader U.S.-Iran or Hormuz-related reporting may still be part of the backdrop.
  • The earlier $75-low August move appears to have tracked a broader crude rebound and fading hopes for a U.S.-Iran deal, though momentum may also have played a role.
  • Polymarket-reported demand appears to have increased for the bullish side in the higher August markets.
  • The latest $85 August surge coincided with reports framed around stronger crude and Middle East tension, though the exact causal weight is uncertain.
  • The $65-low August odds drop may reflect traders pricing out a low-price outcome as oil commentary stayed supportive, though this is not confirmed.
  • The latest $70-low August plunge may reflect the same firmer-crude backdrop, but the specific catalyst is unclear.
  • The latest $110-high August drop may reflect mixed oil coverage, including firmer crude alongside weak-demand concerns and supply-risk headlines, though no specific driver is confirmed.
  • The newest $65-low drop may have coincided with Reuters reporting oil down on weak demand outlook and a sizable U.S. crude build, though this is only a likely match.

Unresolved questions

  • Whether the $65 August odds keep falling or stabilize near the new level.
  • Whether the $85 and other higher August thresholds can hold their recent gains.
  • Whether crude prices stay firm enough to support the higher thresholds.
  • How much of each move reflects fresh information versus momentum.
  • Whether later headlines change the setup before the August contract ends.
  • Whether the $110-high market continues to fade after this drop.

People and institutions to watch

WTI Crude Oil (WTI)August contractIran-Oman talksU.S.-Iran talksHormuz impassecrude oil marketWTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit $65 in AugustWTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit $70 in AugustWTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit $75 in AugustWTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit $85 in AugustWTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit $90 in AugustWTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit $95 in AugustWTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit $100 in AugustWTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in August

Source trail

No public sources are attached yet.

Living timeline

Significant updates

  1. The "WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in August" outcome in "What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in August 2026?" made a sharp move from 39.0% to 20.5% between 2026-08-17T08:00:14.000Z and 2026-08-18T08:03:05.395Z. PolySays has not found a clear public news source, official statement, or other confirmed catalyst that explains the timing of this move. The move may reflect private interpretation, social discussion, liquidity conditions, or information that has not yet appeared in reliable public sources.

    What changed

    The market repriced by -18.5 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.

    What to watch next

    Watch for official statements, later reporting, social posts that become verifiable public context, and whether volume or the new probability level holds in later snapshots.

    Sources

    No external sources are attached yet.

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