If Trudy never reaches Category 1 strength, "Category 1 or weaker" will resolve to "Yes".
Current leader
100%
100%
2 outcomes
Will Trudy peak at Category 3?
Will Trudy peak at Category 4?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
VolumeMonitoring onlyProbability moved from 99.2% to 99.9%. Reported rolling 24-hour volume changed from $5 to $5,390.03. The cause is not established.
Yes: 99% → 100%
+0.7 ppStory so far
Recently updatedProbability moved from 99.2% to 99.9%. Reported rolling 24-hour volume changed from $5 to $5,390.03. The cause is not established.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 99.2% to 99.9% (+0.7 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T17:01:46.397Z to 2026-10-20T20:51:55.691Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 99.2% → 99.9%
Probability moved from 99.2% to 99.9% (+0.7 percentage points). Observations were 3 hours 50 minutes 9 seconds apart: 2026-10-20 17:01:46 UTC to 2026-10-20 20:51:55 UTC. The move also met PolySays' high-volume-shock threshold. Reported rolling 24-hour volume changed from $5 to $5,390.03.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 98.45% to 97.45% (-1 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T02:45:22.962Z to 2026-10-18T03:01:03.291Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 94.35% to 98.45% (+4.1 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T02:31:23.312Z to 2026-10-18T02:45:22.962Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 7.5% to 2.75% (-4.75 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T08:46:39.870Z to 2026-10-17T09:02:57.129Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 90.35% to 95.3% (+4.95 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T08:46:39.870Z to 2026-10-17T09:02:57.129Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 93.05% to 89.1% (-3.95 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T04:01:34.735Z to 2026-10-17T04:15:35.111Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 89.5% to 93.5% (+4 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T21:02:01.886Z to 2026-10-16T21:16:52.839Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
If Trudy never reaches Category 1 strength, "Category 1 or weaker" will resolve to "Yes".
This market will resolve according to the peak intensity of Trudy (NHC designation EP212026). Peak intensity means the highest Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale category assigned to Trudy in any Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory issued for the storm.
The category is stated in the advisory and is determined by maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average): Category 1 is 74 to 95 mph, Category 2 is 96 to 110 mph, Category 3 is 111 to 129 mph, Category 4 is 130 to 156 mph, and Category 5 is 157 mph or greater. Each category includes both of its stated bounds, so every possible peak wind speed falls in exactly one category.
Wind speeds will be used exactly as published, without rounding. Maximum sustained winds are reported in increments of 5 mph. Post-storm best track data and the Tropical Cyclone Report for Trudy will not be considered for resolution. Advisories issued by any agency other than the National Hurricane Center will not be considered for resolution. This market will resolve once Trudy dissipates.
If Trudy has not dissipated by October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if the advisory data needed to determine its peak intensity has not been published by that time, this market will remain open for up to 2 calendar days (ET) after that date; it will then resolve based on the finalized advisory data published up to that point.
If the data is still unavailable at the end of that period, or publication has been discontinued, this market will resolve according to the highest category assigned to Trudy in any advisory published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to the issuing center differing from other sources.
A reanalysis or reclassification of Trudy's intensity published after Trudy dissipates will not change the resolution of this market. Revisions published before Trudy dissipates will be considered; revisions published after it dissipates will not be considered for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Tropical Cyclone Public Advisories issued for Trudy by the National Hurricane Center (, specifically the category and the maximum sustained wind speed stated in the advisory.
Living timeline · 7 significant updates
Will Trudy peak at Category 3? — probability rises to 99.9%
Keep exploring
How strong will Trudy be?
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