activeGeopoliticsDecember 31 2026 0% 24h

U.S. nuclear test by...?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET).

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Current leader
December 31 2026 9%
Largest 24h move
December 31 2026 0%
24h volume
2.2K
Liquidity
29.6K

Top candidates

3 outcomes

December 31 2026

9%

0% 24h

September 30 2026

3%

0% 24h

June 30 2026

0%

0% 24h

Market rules, made readable

Official description

How this market is decided

See what is changing

Resolves Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET).

Resolves No

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.

Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.

Living timeline · 0 significant updates

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Odds chart

Candidate probability over time

Odds chart showing latest December 31 2026 probability of 5%.

Story so far

Still building

No event-level story summary has been written yet.

There is not enough public context for a useful story yet.

Latest update

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The timeline is waiting for a meaningful movement.

Why this matters

Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.

Known catalysts

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Unresolved questions

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People and institutions to watch

Nothing specific is being tracked yet.

Source trail

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Living timeline

Significant updates

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