This market will resolve according to the US national average price of regular gasoline published by AAA for October 16, 2026.
Current leader
100%
100%
1 outcome
Will the US national average gas price be between $4.3200 and $4.3299 on October 16?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 100%, up 6.2 percentage points from 93.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 94% → 100%
+6.2 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability rose to 100%, up 6.2 percentage points from 93.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 93.8% to 100% (+6.2 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T02:00:10.057Z to 2026-10-17T02:30:14.048Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 93.8% → 100%
Probability moved from 93.8% to 100% (+6.2 percentage points). Observations were 30 minutes 4 seconds apart: 2026-10-17 02:00:10 UTC to 2026-10-17 02:30:14 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This market will resolve according to the US national average price of regular gasoline published by AAA for October 16, 2026. This market resolves based on the US national average price of regular gasoline published by AAA at in the "National Average Gas Prices" table under the "Regular" column and the "Current Avg." row.
Each date's price is the price displayed at 10:00 AM ET on that date, provided that at that time the "Price as of" date shown on the webpage is that date and the "Yesterday Avg." row in the same column shows the previous date's price.
If either condition is not met at 10:00 AM ET, the price will be observed at the first time on that date at which both are met; if both are not met by 11:59 PM ET on that date, the price displayed in the table at that time will be used. If AAA does not display the US national average price of regular gasoline in the table at the time of observation, the price displayed elsewhere on the webpage will be used.
If AAA displays no US national average price of regular gasoline on the specified webpage at any time on the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent previously-published AAA US national average price of regular gasoline. The resolution source for this market will be the American Automobile Association (AAA) (. Note: AAA currently publishes gas prices to four decimal places (e.g., $4.3718).
The price will be used as published, without rounding.
Living timeline · 1 significant update
Will the US national average gas price be between $4.3200 and $4.3299 on October 16? — probability rises to 100%
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