By PolySays EditorialUpdated Editorial method
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on October 9, 2026.
Current leader
100%
100%
1 outcome
Will Trump's approval rating be between 36.5 and 36.9 on October 9, 2026?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 97%, up 10.0 percentage points from 87% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 87% → 97%
+10.0 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability rose to 97%, up 10.0 percentage points from 87% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
The probability change is measured directly from the market observations. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied. This note records market behavior only and does not infer a reason for the move.
The measured move
Yes: 87.0% → 97.0%
Probability moved from 87% to 97% (+10 percentage points). Observations were 9 minutes 48 seconds apart: 2026-10-10 15:40:23 UTC to 2026-10-10 15:50:11 UTC.
Watch for official filings, polling or vote results, candidate announcements, and whether later observations hold the new level.
No external sources are attached yet.
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on October 9, 2026. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator,, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Living timeline · 2 significant updates
Will Trump's approval rating be between 36.5 and 36.9 on October 9, 2026? — probability rises to 97%
Keep exploring
PolySays is independent and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, sponsored by, or operated by Polymarket. PolySays provides informational and educational content only and does not provide financial, betting, investment, tax, or legal advice. Prediction markets involve risk, and regulatory status varies by jurisdiction.
Source market
Figures refresh periodically, not tick by tick. PolySays explains markets; it doesn’t run one or give trading advice.
View on PolymarketPolySays may earn referral rewards from Polymarket links at no added cost to you. Full disclosure.