The 2026 Surrey, BC mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 17, 2026.
Current leader
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2 outcomes
Will Doug McCallum win the 2026 Surrey mayoral election?
Will Brenda Locke win the 2026 Surrey mayoral election?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability fell to 2.85%, down 15.9 percentage points from 18.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 19% → 3%
-15.9 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability fell to 2.85%, down 15.9 percentage points from 18.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 18.75% to 2.85% (-15.9 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T04:46:08.499Z to 2026-10-18T05:17:00.506Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 18.75% → 2.85%
Probability moved from 18.75% to 2.85% (-15.9 percentage points). Observations were 30 minutes 52 seconds apart: 2026-10-18 04:46:08 UTC to 2026-10-18 05:17:00 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 78.3% to 97.15% (+18.85 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T04:32:27.128Z to 2026-10-18T05:01:40.293Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 2.75% to 18.75% (+16 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T04:32:27.128Z to 2026-10-18T04:46:08.499Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
The 2026 Surrey, BC mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 17, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Surrey as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Surrey.
Living timeline · 3 significant updates
Will Brenda Locke win the 2026 Surrey mayoral election? — probability falls to 2.85%
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