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Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?

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Current leader
No 99%
Leader 24h
0%
24h volume
556.3K
Liquidity
537.8K

Top outcomes

2 outcomes

No

99%

0% 24h

Yes

1%

0% 24h

Odds chart

Probability over time

Story so far

Needs a refresh

The Strait of Hormuz "returns to normal" market moved lower over the latest 24-hour window, with the August 31 Yes outcome falling from 12.5% to 9.5% between July 28 and July 29, 2026. The move is confirmed by CLOB price history; related regional headlines may have been in the background, but a direct causal link is not established.

No major update has changed the story in 55 days.

Latest update

No updates yet

The timeline is waiting for a meaningful movement.

Why this matters

Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.

Known catalysts

  • The Yes price fell 3.0 points over 24 hours according to CLOB price history.
  • Contextual Strait of Hormuz-related geopolitical coverage may have influenced attention, but this is not confirmed as the cause.

Unresolved questions

  • What specific news or developments, if any, drove the odds decline?
  • Whether the move reflects broader geopolitical risk sentiment or market-specific positioning remains unclear.
  • Did trading volume or liquidity changes contribute to the sharper downward move?

People and institutions to watch

Strait of HormuzAugust 31 marketYes outcomeCLOB price history

Source trail

No public sources are attached yet.

Living timeline

Significant updates

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