activeFinance+3% 24h

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?

By PolySays EditorialUpdated Editorial method

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and August 31, 2026.

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Current leader
No 91%
Leader 24h
+3%
24h volume
411.2K
Liquidity
506.6K

Top outcomes

2 outcomes

No

91%

+3% 24h

Yes

10%

-3% 24h

Market rules, made readable

Official description

How this market is decided

See what is changing

Resolves Yes

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and August 31, 2026.

Resolves No

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published.

If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying.

Read the complete resolution rules

Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for August 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections.

Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Living timeline · 1 significant update

Strait of Hormuz "returns to normal" odds fell 3 points over 24 hours

Odds chart

Probability over time

Story so far

Up to date

The Strait of Hormuz "returns to normal" market moved lower over the latest 24-hour window, with the August 31 Yes outcome falling from 12.5% to 9.5% between July 28 and July 29, 2026. The move is confirmed by CLOB price history; related regional headlines may have been in the background, but a direct causal link is not established.

This story reflects the latest meaningful update PolySays has published.

Latest update

Strait of Hormuz "returns to normal" odds fell 3 points over 24 hours

The August 31 market for Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal moved lower, dropping from 12.5% to 9.5% between July 28 and July 29. Contextual headlines during the same period highlighted fresh Strait of Hormuz-related geopolitical coverage, but the price move itself is only confirmed by CLOB history.

Why this matters

Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.

Known catalysts

  • The Yes price fell 3.0 points over 24 hours according to CLOB price history.
  • Contextual Strait of Hormuz-related geopolitical coverage may have influenced attention, but this is not confirmed as the cause.

Unresolved questions

  • What specific news or developments, if any, drove the odds decline?
  • Whether the move reflects broader geopolitical risk sentiment or market-specific positioning remains unclear.
  • Did trading volume or liquidity changes contribute to the sharper downward move?

People and institutions to watch

Strait of HormuzAugust 31 marketYes outcomeCLOB price history

Source trail

No public sources are attached yet.

Living timeline

Significant updates

  1. The August 31 Yes price on this market fell from 0.125 to 0.095, a 3.0-point decline, over the 24-hour window from 2026-07-28T07:00:34.000Z to 2026-07-29T07:30:09.280Z. The supplied sources do not prove a single cause for the move. They do show renewed Strait of Hormuz coverage during the same period, including reports about Iran rejecting an Oman shipping proposal and separate headlines about threats to ships near the Strait. Those headlines may have contributed to sentiment, but that link is not confirmed by the provided material. The only confirmed fact here is the market price movement itself.

    What changed

    Yes for August 31 dropped 3.0 points, from 12.5% to 9.5%, in roughly 24 hours.

    What to watch next

    Watch for any verified shipping, naval, or diplomatic developments that materially change traffic conditions in the Strait of Hormuz before August 31; absent that, the market may remain driven by headline flow and sentiment.

    Sources

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