By PolySays EditorialUpdated Editorial method
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 14?
Current leader
0%
0%
2 outcomes
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on October 14?
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on October 14?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability fell to 0.05%, down 3.2 percentage points from 3.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 3% → 0%
-3.2 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability fell to 0.05%, down 3.2 percentage points from 3.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
The probability change is measured directly from the market observations. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied. This note records market behavior only and does not infer a reason for the move.
The measured move
Yes: 3.3% → 0.1%
Probability moved from 3.25% to 0.05% (-3.2 percentage points). Observations were 26 minutes 20 seconds apart: 2026-10-14 19:42:58 UTC to 2026-10-14 20:09:19 UTC.
Watch for official disclosures or data releases, sustained volume, and whether later observations confirm the move.
No external sources are attached yet.
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 14?
Living timeline · 5 significant updates
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on October 14? — probability falls to 0.05%
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PlungeS&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 14?
PlungeS&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 14?
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