This market will resolve to "Yes" if the number of passing touchdowns the listed player records during the 2026-27 NFL regular season equals or exceeds 30.
Current leader
38.5%
39%
1 outcome
Will Patrick Mahomes have 30+ passing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability fell to 38.5%, down 3.5 percentage points from 42% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 42% → 39%
-3.5 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability fell to 38.5%, down 3.5 percentage points from 42% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 42% to 38.5% (-3.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T07:04:50.573Z to 2026-10-21T09:30:13.568Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 42% → 38.5%
Probability moved from 42% to 38.5% (-3.5 percentage points). Observations were 2 hours 25 minutes 23 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 07:04:50 UTC to 2026-10-21 09:30:13 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 26% to 42% (+16 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T06:50:25.251Z to 2026-10-21T07:04:50.573Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 36% to 26% (-10 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T06:32:28.344Z to 2026-10-21T06:50:25.251Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 26% to 36% (+10 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T06:19:22.060Z to 2026-10-21T06:32:28.344Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 17.5% to 29% (+11.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T05:02:32.123Z to 2026-10-21T05:17:25.794Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 29% to 17.5% (-11.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T04:47:12.589Z to 2026-10-21T05:02:32.123Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 17.5% to 29% (+11.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T04:32:51.721Z to 2026-10-21T04:47:12.589Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 42% to 16.5% (-25.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T04:02:56.817Z to 2026-10-21T04:20:41.613Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the number of passing touchdowns the listed player records during the 2026-27 NFL regular season equals or exceeds 30.
Resolves No
Otherwise, the associated market will resolve to "No".
Only regular season games count. Playoff games, including Wild Card, Divisional, Conference Championship, and Pro Football Championship games, do not count. If the listed player does not play in the 2026-27 NFL regular season for any reason, the associated market will resolve to "No".
If the 2026-27 NFL regular season is shortened, truncated, or ends early for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available official data for completed games. If the 2026-27 NFL regular season is cancelled, postponed after January 26, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or it cannot be determined how many passing touchdowns the listed player recorded within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "50-50".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Living timeline · 12 significant updates
Will Patrick Mahomes have 30+ passing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 38.5%
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