Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pierre Poilievre ceases to be Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET).
- Current leader
- No 93%
- Leader 24h
- 0%
- 24h volume
- 12.5
- Liquidity
- 9.3K
Top outcomes
2 outcomes
No
93%
0% 24h
Yes
7%
0% 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pierre Poilievre ceases to be Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Living timeline · 0 significant updates
See the evidence and market movement as the story develops.
Odds chart
Probability over time
Odds chart showing latest No probability of 88%.
Story so far
Still buildingNo story summary has been written yet.
There is not enough public context for a useful story yet.
Latest update
No updates yet
The timeline is waiting for a meaningful movement.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- No catalyst has been confirmed yet.
Unresolved questions
- No open questions have been logged yet.
People and institutions to watch
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline