Pakistan military action against Yemen by...?
By PolySays EditorialReporting published Editorial method
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pakistan takes a qualifying military action against Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM Yemen Standard Time.
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- Current leader
- 45%Pakistan military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026?
- Largest 24h move
- +36.0 pp
- 24h volume
- 16.7K
- Liquidity
- 6.3K
Top candidates
1 outcome
Pakistan military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026?
45%
+36.0 pp 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pakistan takes a qualifying military action against Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM Yemen Standard Time.
Resolves No
Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Pakistan, that directly impacts Yemen.
An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g.
Read the complete resolution rules
MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action.
Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Yemen do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Yemen” refers to the terrestrial territory of Yemen, including its internal waters. Yemen’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed.
Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Yemen as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources.
Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Yemen Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action.
If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time.
No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Pakistan and Yemen and a consensus of credible reporting.
Living timeline · 1 significant update
Pakistan military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026? — probability falls to 44.5%
Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Latest chart observation: . Reporting is updated separately.
Story so far
Published updateThe tracked probability fell to 44.5%, down 6.9 percentage points from 51.4% in the latest observation window. The price decrease is recorded; its cause remains unverified.
This summary reflects the reporting below. Market odds can change between published updates.
Latest published update
Published
Pakistan military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026? — probability falls to 44.5%
The tracked probability fell to 44.5%, down 6.9 percentage points from 51.4% in the latest observation window. The price decrease is recorded; its cause remains unverified.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- No confirmed catalyst is recorded in this summary.
Unresolved questions
- Watch for official filings, polling or vote results, candidate announcements, and whether later observations hold the new level.
People and institutions to watch
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline
Significant updates
The market data establishes the size and direction of the change. A dated source addressing the exact contract would be needed to add an explanation.
What changed
Probability moved from 51.4% to 44.5% (-6.9 percentage points). Observations were 28 minutes 36 seconds apart: 2026-10-08 13:22:52 UTC to 2026-10-08 13:51:28 UTC.
What to watch next
Watch for official filings, polling or vote results, candidate announcements, and whether later observations hold the new level.
Sources
No external sources are attached yet.
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