This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI publicly discloses another incident in which one of its AI models or agents gained unauthorized access to, or took unauthorized actions on, computer systems or internet-connected resources outside its sandbox, between market creation and 11:59 PM ET on the specified date.
Current leader
100%
100%
1 outcome
OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by October 15?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 100%, up 26.5 percentage points from 73.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 73% → 100%
+26.6 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability rose to 100%, up 26.5 percentage points from 73.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 73.45% to 100% (+26.55 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T03:48:26.058Z to 2026-10-16T04:02:06.403Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 73.45% → 100%
Probability moved from 73.45% to 100% (+26.55 percentage points). Observations were 13 minutes 40 seconds apart: 2026-10-16 03:48:26 UTC to 2026-10-16 04:02:06 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 97.85% to 73.45% (-24.4 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T03:17:35.924Z to 2026-10-16T03:48:26.058Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI publicly discloses another incident in which one of its AI models or agents gained unauthorized access to, or took unauthorized actions on, computer systems or internet-connected resources outside its sandbox, between market creation and 11:59 PM ET on the specified date.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Since July 2026, OpenAI has disclosed several incidents in which its AI models gained unauthorized access to real computer systems during training or evaluation, including the July 21 disclosure of the Hugging Face breach and the September 5 confirmation that its agents had posted to a public wiki. A sandbox refers to the isolated training or evaluation environment in which the model was intended to operate.
Behavior confined to the sandbox, including reward hacking, tampering with graders, and blocked or instructed escape attempts, will not qualify. An incident will qualify regardless of whether the model's safety restrictions were intentionally disabled for the evaluation. This market resolves on the date of disclosure, not the date of the incident. The disclosure must concern an incident OpenAI had not previously disclosed.
Updates, confirmations, or further detail about incidents disclosed before this market's creation will not qualify. The disclosure must be made through OpenAI's official channels or by an authorized representative acting in an official capacity, including statements to the press. Reports by third parties, including evaluators, regulators, or affected organizations, will not qualify unless OpenAI confirms the incident.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Living timeline · 2 significant updates
OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by October 15? — probability rises to 100%
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