This market will resolve according to the number of times NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani (@NYCMayor), posts on X between October 27, 12:00 PM ET and November 3, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Current leader
40.5%
41%
1 outcome
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability fell to 39.5%, down 32.0 percentage points from 71.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 72% → 40%
-32.0 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability fell to 39.5%, down 32.0 percentage points from 71.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 71.5% to 39.5% (-32 percentage points), from 2026-10-30T02:46:48.064Z to 2026-10-30T03:01:44.255Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 71.5% → 39.5%
Probability moved from 71.5% to 39.5% (-32 percentage points). Observations were 14 minutes 56 seconds apart: 2026-10-30 02:46:48 UTC to 2026-10-30 03:01:44 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 39.5% to 72.5% (+33 percentage points), from 2026-10-30T01:17:25.148Z to 2026-10-30T02:03:31.368Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 13.5% to 39.5% (+26 percentage points), from 2026-10-30T00:49:15.817Z to 2026-10-30T01:17:25.148Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This market will resolve according to the number of times NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani (@NYCMayor), posts on X between October 27, 12:00 PM ET and November 3, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Living timeline · 3 significant updates
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026? — probability falls to 39.5%
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