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Nobel Economics Prize Winner 2026

By PolySays EditorialUpdated Editorial method

Post

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed person is named a laureate of the 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics in the official announcement from the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences.

Current leader

100%

100%

Largest 24h move+87.5 pp 24h
24h volume
$2.7K
Liquidity
$0
Closed

Top candidates

1 outcome

  • Will Michael Woodford win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?

    +87.5 pp 24h100%

Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).

Latest update

SurgeMonitoring only

Will Michael Woodford win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026? — probability rises to 99.5%

This outcome moved up 24.5 percentage points, from 75% to 99.5%.

Yes: 75% → 100%

+24.5 pp
Sources and full timeline

Story so far

Recently updated

This outcome moved up 24.5 percentage points, from 75% to 99.5%.

A sourced or deterministic market update is available.

Known catalysts

Supported by the sources below

  • No catalyst has been confirmed yet.

Unresolved questions

What the evidence doesn’t settle

  • Watch subsequent price observations and reporting that addresses the contract's exact conditions. Market prices do not determine the official outcome.

People and institutions to watch

Nothing specific is being tracked yet.

Source trail

Public sources opened for this story

No public sources are attached yet.

Odds chart

Candidate probability over time

Living timeline

Significant updates

  1. The figures come from the observed market prices over the stated window. They show a change in pricing, without identifying the event or information that prompted it.

    The measured move

    Yes: 75.0% → 99.5%

    What changed

    Probability moved from 75% to 99.5% (+24.5 percentage points). Observations were 10 minutes 20 seconds apart: 2026-10-12 09:50:36 UTC to 2026-10-12 10:00:56 UTC.

    What to watch next

    Watch subsequent price observations and reporting that addresses the contract's exact conditions. Market prices do not determine the official outcome.

    Sources

    No external sources are attached yet.

Market rules, made readable

Official description

How this market is decided

Read the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.

See what is changing

Resolves Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed person is named a laureate of the 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics in the official announcement from the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences.

Resolves No

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The Nobel Prize in Economics is awarded annually by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences. The 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics is scheduled to be announced on October 12, 2026, at 11:45 AM CEST (5:45 AM ET) at the earliest. The Nobel Prize in Economics means the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel. The prize may be shared by up to three laureates.

A listed person who shares the 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics will resolve to "Yes" regardless of how many other laureates are named alongside them. If the 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics is withheld, is reserved for a later year, or has otherwise not been announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Read the complete resolution rules

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official announcement from the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, published at; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Maps and resolution sources

Living timeline · 1 significant update

Will Michael Woodford win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026? — probability rises to 99.5%

Keep exploring

Recent market explanations

Surge

Will Michael Woodford win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026? — probability rises to 99.5%

Nobel Economics Prize Winner 2026

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