activeTechCloses Oct 31

Next Muse Spark Model (1.4+) released on...?

By PolySays EditorialUpdated Oct 15, 2026, 1:36 AM UTCEditorial method

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public.

Current leader

94.5%

95%

Largest 24h move+0.5 pp 24h

24h volume: $32.6
Liquidity: $1.3K
Scheduled close: Oct 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC

Top candidates

1 outcome

Will there be no next Meta Muse Spark model release by October 31, 2026?
+0.5 pp 24h95%

Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).

Latest update

SurgeMonitoring onlyOct 15

Will there be no next Meta Muse Spark model release by October 31, 2026? — probability rises to 92.5%

The observed probability rose from 90.5% to 92.5%, an increase of 2 percentage points.

Yes: 91% → 93%

+2.0 pp

Sources and full timeline

Story so far

Known catalysts

Supported by the sources below

No catalyst has been confirmed yet.

Unresolved questions

What the evidence doesn’t settle

Watch subsequent price observations and reporting that addresses the contract's exact conditions. Market prices do not determine the official outcome.

People and institutions to watch

Nothing specific is being tracked yet.

Source trail

Public sources opened for this story

No public sources are attached yet.

Odds chart

Candidate probability over time

Living timeline

Significant updates

This update compares two recorded market observations. The price change describes trading in this contract; the available data does not establish its cause.
The measured move
Yes: 90.5% → 92.5%
What changed
Probability moved from 90.5% to 92.5% (+2 percentage points). Observations were 37 minutes 12 seconds apart: 2026-10-15 00:59:43 UTC to 2026-10-15 01:36:55 UTC.
What to watch next
Watch subsequent price observations and reporting that addresses the contract's exact conditions. Market prices do not determine the official outcome.
Sources
No external sources are attached yet.

Market rules, made readable

Official description

How this market is decided

Read the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.

See what is changing

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors.

For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.

Read the complete resolution rules

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website.

Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Living timeline · 2 significant updates

Will there be no next Meta Muse Spark model release by October 31, 2026? — probability rises to 92.5%

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