Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
- Current leader
- less than 4m square kilometers 49%
- Largest 24h move
- less than 4m square kilometers +7%
- 24h volume
- 345.7
- Liquidity
- 15K
Top candidates
7 outcomes
less than 4m square kilometers
49%
+7% 24h
between 4.0m & 4.2m square kilometers
22%
+2% 24h
between 4.2m & 4.4m square kilometers
12%
-0% 24h
at least 5m square kilometers
8%
+0% 24h
between 4.4m & 4.6m square kilometers
5%
+0% 24h
Show all outcomes
between 4.6m & 4.8m square kilometers
4%
+0%
between 4.8m & 5m square kilometers
1%
+0%
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Read the complete resolution rules
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Living timeline · 0 significant updates
See the evidence and market movement as the story develops.
Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Odds chart showing latest less than 4m square kilometers probability of 26%.
Story so far
Still buildingNo event-level story summary has been written yet.
There is not enough public context for a useful story yet.
Latest update
No updates yet
The timeline is waiting for a meaningful movement.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- No catalyst has been confirmed yet.
Unresolved questions
- No open questions have been logged yet.
People and institutions to watch
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline